There may be trouble ahead: Hungary set to reject budget and COVID recovery scheme

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,089
2,108
Poland's a different situation - Poland leaving the EU would be problematic - 1) it's too large (36 million population) 2) it's industry and economy are too tightly integrated with its neighbours (i.e. a huge about of German, Scandi and French companies have outsourced or relocated services / manufacturing / packaging manufacturing to Poland, not to mention that Poland imports a huge amount of waste from other EU states for processing, rather than those states processing that waste themselves, 3) the military ascot (like it or not, Poland is vehemently pro-NATO and anti-Russian, and does act as a firewall between the rest of the EU and Russia as the other EU states bordering Russia are much smaller nations, 4) Poland exports a huge amount of skilled and semi-skilled labour throughout the EU and 5) while the current Polish government are bigots, authortirians and approaching being outright fascists, this is not representative of a significant chunk the Polish population. The government may be homophobic but attendance at Pride marches is growing and acceptance and support of LGBT+ issues is also growing. An honest referendum to leave the EU would fall on its face, and an attempt to remove the whole Polish population from the EU would only justify and propagate anti-EU opinions.

The nasty truth is that the above wouldn't apply to Hungary, as Hungary is a smaller state and far less important to the economic health of the EU overall. Forcing Hungray out would result in a blip. Forcing Poland out would cause far more than an economic blip.


The problem is that not enough people in Poland vote, as there's a general sense of disillusionment with current politics. So the current government was elected by a minority of the population, not the majority.
Most govts are elected by a minority and (gigantic exceptions like Trump aside) they tend not to be naked fascists. Unfortunately, I think if Poland and Hungary don't clean up their respective acts in the next year or so, the issue of their expulsion from the EU will have to be broached. It's tough for the decent minorities in both countries, but they are making a mockery of 'European values' as things stand. They might as well let Turkey in as well - you know, to strike a balance between the various types of fascists!
 

Prof Honeydew

Member
Nov 28, 2018
1,371
3,405
Mark Rutte went further.

I wouldn't take everything Rutte says at face value. The Dutch, along with their Frugal Four mates in Denmark, Finland and Austria, have been doing everything they can to screw the EU's €trillion COVID recovery programme ever since it was announced last year. When they were finally shamed into lifting their objections at the last Summit, along pops Orban to hopefully do the needful for them. There's a load of politics going on here between populist but liberal governments in a number of wealthy North European states who don't want to give tuppence to populist but illiberal governments in South and East Europe even though these have suffered way more economic damage as a result of the pandemic.

It is not unknown in the history of the EU to use high-falutin ideals to hide a reluctance to putting one's hand in one's pocket.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,089
2,108
I wouldn't take everything Rutte says at face value. The Dutch, along with their Frugal Four mates in Denmark, Finland and Austria, have been doing everything they can to screw the EU's €trillion COVID recovery programme ever since it was announced last year. When they were finally shamed into lifting their objections at the last Summit, along pops Orban to hopefully do the needful for them. There's a load of politics going on here between populist but liberal governments in a number of wealthy North European states who don't want to give tuppence to populist but illiberal governments in South and East Europe even though these have suffered way more economic damage as a result of the pandemic.

It is not unknown in the history of the EU to use high-falutin ideals to hide a reluctance to putting one's hand in one's pocket.
Frugality aside, I can fully understand them not wanting to give 'tuppence' to the likes of Orban and the Polish crew (and indeed others) unless its destination is out of latter's control.
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
The EU can't throw countries out we had this debate during Brexit....

Article 7 is clear on this ...we can suspend certain rights of a wayward member state but there is no mechanism to expel anyone ......Rutte is talking out of his hole ...

I'd also point out after our economic collapse in 2008 I seem to recall a similar sentiment being expressed in certain quarters about us after the level of financial mismanagement became apparent.....

Orban have made some crazy promises along the lines of the Poles about abolishing tax on people under a certain age etc ....he will be back at the table before long .....
 

Truthisfree

Member
Nov 27, 2018
3,136
2,289
The EU can't throw countries out we had this debate during Brexit....

Article 7 is clear on this ...we can suspend certain rights of a wayward member state but there is no mechanism to expel anyone ......Rutte is talking out of his hole ...

I'd also point out after our economic collapse in 2008 I seem to recall a similar sentiment being expressed in certain quarters about us after the level of financial mismanagement became apparent.....

Orban have made some crazy promises along the lines of the Poles about abolishing tax on people under a certain age etc ....he will be back at the table before long .....
You’re absolutely right, there is no mechanism to expel any member state out of the EU, just like there was none for a member state to leave until the UK wrote one.
 

Bonkers

Member
Feb 15, 2019
4,250
4,038
The EU can't throw countries out we had this debate during Brexit....

Article 7 is clear on this ...we can suspend certain rights of a wayward member state but there is no mechanism to expel anyone ......Rutte is talking out of his hole ...

I'd also point out after our economic collapse in 2008 I seem to recall a similar sentiment being expressed in certain quarters about us after the level of financial mismanagement became apparent.....

Orban have made some crazy promises along the lines of the Poles about abolishing tax on people under a certain age etc ....he will be back at the table before long .....
Orban is a far right loon. They made a huge mistake letting the likes of Hungary and Poland in. They can be made pay in other ways.
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
Orban is a far right loon. They made a huge mistake letting the likes of Hungary and Poland in. They can be made pay in other ways.
But they can't throw them out...

I'm struck that some posters bang on about the law across other threads and the EU being an organization based in law when it suits their POV but want to suspend the law when it suits them ....
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
Precisely, one had to be found.
It won't be ...it was left out because they couldn't get agreement when they were writing the articles ...

It's even more complex now trying to undo treaties and agreements as we have seen with Brexit not to mention why would smaller states agree to an article that could be used against them down the road on some other issue ..?

I don't like Orban any more than most people but it's not a reason to throw a rattle out of the pram.... as Bonkers said there is more than one way to skin a cat ....
 
Last edited:

Bonkers

Member
Feb 15, 2019
4,250
4,038
But they can't throw them out...

I'm struck that some posters bang on about the law across other threads and the EU being an organization based in law when it suits their POV but want to suspend the law when it suits them ....
I know they can’t throw them out but they can withhold grants etc etc.
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
I know they can’t throw them out but they can withhold grants etc etc.
That's not what people on this thread were saying earlier....they were saying we should suspend EU law and fook them out ...Article 7 allows for action to be taken for states that refuse to uphold the core values of the EU...

How would they like it if the larger states of the EU had fooked us under the bus after the carry on of FF in 2008 or to simplify Brexit and the issue of the border ...?

Rutte batted for May and Johnson right up to the end even when he knew they weren't negotiating in good faith or couldn't deliver due to domestic politics ...I also lived and worked in Holland in the 1990s.for a while .. the Dutch are no saints when it comes to racism and right wing nutters at times either.....
 
Last edited:

CarlDoyle

Member
Feb 10, 2021
201
129
.... just like there was none for a member state to leave until the UK wrote one.
All members had to agree to that change.

It would take a new treaty. They would have to sneak it into some kind of annex.

Any country at risk of being ejected would block it.

In theory, all members could decide to leave and re-join EU-2 with the same rules but one less member.
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190
Perhaps they also suffer a bit from what held Ireland back until the late eighties - emigration causing a skewed demographic, as all the younger progressive types have moved away.
They suffer A LOT from that. It complete crews up voting - rather than voting and/or supporting the rise of more progressive parties, many younger potential voters don't vote, thinking instead there's no point, as they'll be leaving anyway.

NO, even though GDP has been soaring, so has inflation and, surprise surprise, property prices, as interest rates so low and inflation so high, property has become where people both invest and try to keep their wealth safe. Keeping money in the bank is a guaranteed to lose its value.

So,without the opportunity for people to become homeowners, there's even less incentive to not to emigrate.
 

Bonkers

Member
Feb 15, 2019
4,250
4,038
They suffer A LOT from that. It complete crews up voting - rather than voting and/or supporting the rise of more progressive parties, many younger potential voters don't vote, thinking instead there's no point, as they'll be leaving anyway.

NO, even though GDP has been soaring, so has inflation and, surprise surprise, property prices, as interest rates so low and inflation so high, property has become where people both invest and try to keep their wealth safe. Keeping money in the bank is a guaranteed to lose its value.

So,without the opportunity for people to become homeowners, there's even less incentive to not to emigrate.
How many Poles have emigrated?
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190
They need to wake up and vote then before it’s too late.
Who are "they"? There is a significant amount of the population who are well aware of what's going on. But the justice system has been politicised, the position of Prosecuter General is held by the Minister of Justice, "independent" media has been forcably bought over by state companies or is being bankrupted by excresing advertising trarrifs that "state-owned" media is exempt from, and the constitution can be rewritten by a lower house two thirds majority, rather than needing a constitution. The Polish church are fully politicised, support the ruling party, and are financially rewarded for it.

Poland is an authoritarian state now, not a free democracy. You seem to think that the population has the same agency as the population in Ireland, Germany or even the UK have. They don't.

A significant proportion of the population fully support EU sanctions on Poland, even though it will severely hurt that same population. Essentially they're prepared and willing to take the damage of the radiation and chemo if it kills the cancer that's growing in the country. That section of the population are losing faith in the EU because of the lack of direct action being imposed on the Poland government.

That is the point where it is now at.
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
All members had to agree to that change.

It would take a new treaty. They would have to sneak it into some kind of annex.

Any country at risk of being ejected would block it.

In theory, all members could decide to leave and re-join EU-2 with the same rules but one less member.

Orban is running a deficit and is already starting to face some pushback from the opposition heading into an GE in 2022...


Orban and his Fidesz party face their first competitive elections next year after three successive landslides since 2010. Opposition parties have united against Fidesz for the first time and caught up with them in opinion polls.
Be better all round if the Hungarian opposition are given a chance to turn the situation around first....
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190
How many Poles have emigrated?
Overall? The population(residents, not citizens) has dropped by over 2 and half million in the ten years (for over 38.5 million to barely 36 million, but there has been an estimated immigration about 3 million Ukranians into the country in that time, so about 5 million have left in the last ten years alone.


Officially the figure is that 5.1% of people holding Polish citizenship live outside of Poland, but the figure is assumed to be far higher. It is estimated that half a million Poles have left Poland a year every year since 2013.
 

Bonkers

Member
Feb 15, 2019
4,250
4,038
Who are "they"? There is a significant amount of the population who are well aware of what's going on. But the justice system has been politicised, the position of Prosecuter General is held by the Minister of Justice, "independent" media has been forcably bought over by state companies or is being bankrupted by excresing advertising trarrifs that "state-owned" media is exempt from, and the constitution can be rewritten by a lower house two thirds majority, rather than needing a constitution. The Polish church are fully politicised, support the ruling party, and are financially rewarded for it.

Poland is an authoritarian state now, not a free democracy. You seem to think that the population has the same agency as the population in Ireland, Germany or even the UK have. They don't.

A significant proportion of the population fully support EU sanctions on Poland, even though it will severely hurt that same population. Essentially they're prepared and willing to take the damage of the radiation and chemo if it kills the cancer that's growing in the country. That section of the population are losing faith in the EU because of the lack of direct action being imposed on the Poland government.

That is the point where it is now at.
I didn’t realise it’s that bad.
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
They suffer A LOT from that. It complete crews up voting - rather than voting and/or supporting the rise of more progressive parties, many younger potential voters don't vote, thinking instead there's no point, as they'll be leaving anyway.

NO, even though GDP has been soaring, so has inflation and, surprise surprise, property prices, as interest rates so low and inflation so high, property has become where people both invest and try to keep their wealth safe. Keeping money in the bank is a guaranteed to lose its value.

So,without the opportunity for people to become homeowners, there's even less incentive to not to emigrate.

I've worked with a lot of people from Eastern Europe on sites and even on one job with four lads from Mongolia......you haven't seen wrestling until you seen those lads going at it on a lunch break....:eek:

I've met quite a few Romanians,Poles,Hungarians and others for many countries over the years ....even had one lad from Budapest playing ball with us at the weekends for a while....they leave because the way people in this country had to leave and how FF-FG used emigration to keep the lid on things and stay in power for decades....

The reason many are here is the same reason many in Ireland had to leave....one fella on the last job told me he had his own advertising business in Romania until he woke one morning and realised the government had taken half his savings out of his account in the bank during the night.....i met him labouring on a site just off Dame St as it was all he could get...he was a very intelligent person with excellent English i hope he got back to working in advertising....
 
Last edited:

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
582
69
I didn’t realise it’s that bad.
It's worse than you think. I lived there and know many people there. People who work in the public service are afraid to talk on the phone in case it's bugged. People are huonded by the security and there are regular attacks on "deviants" which means guys, black and brown people and "Jews" which could be anyone. The propaganda on the state run TVP has to be heard to be believed.
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190
Over 160 public figures have supported an open letter to Poland’s culture minister calling on him to “stop financing fascism” after far-right groups were given over three million (€660,000) in grants from a state “Patriotic Fund”.

Among those to receive the money are the organisers of the Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości), an annual event founded by three far-right groups, and the National Guard (Straż Narodowa), which aims to “stand in the front line of the counter-revolution fighting against extreme-left activists”.

Both organisations are closely linked toRobert Bąkiewicz (pictured above). He was until recently leader of National Radical Camp (ONR), a far-right group that seeks an “ethnically homogenous” Poland and which the Supreme Court recently ruled could be called “fascist”.



All-Polish Youth was prominently involved in anti-Jewish campaigns in 1930s Poland, as was the original ONR. The modern incarnations of both groups are founders of the Independence March, which is attended by tens of thousands and has often witnessed rioting as well as xenophobic, homophobic and antisemitic slogans.

Following last year’s march, opposition parties called for the march to be banned after participants attacked the police, bombarding them with flares, bottles and paving stones. They also set fire to an apartment in a building where LGBT and women’s rights symbols were displayed.

However, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has defended the event, calling it a predominantly peaceful and patriotic march. PiS blamed – without presenting evidence – “provocateurs” for causing the violence. It also accused the opposition and women’s rights protesters of stoking tension.


Like most things, this letter eill be ignored by the Polish givernment, but it gives a snapshot of what’s going on here.

For those who think that this government is simply acting on the mandate given to them when 30% of the electirate voted for the hem, keep in mind that they criminalised abortion in all cases except incest and rape (rape being extremely hard to prove under Polish law), a tightening of abortion restrictions that 83% of the population disagreed with.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/06/30/stop-financing-fascism-polish-public-figures-tell-culture-minister-after-grants-to-far-right-groups/?fbclid=IwAR1wbrBXB2jZYcFZ2SpHdo8_ePF2pET2J-I4Izg2dx_3Dfi5xJgv7hggdnM
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190

publicrealm

Member
Nov 27, 2018
6,895
9,368
I assume the reckoning will come at budget time.
The European Commission will not approve Hungary’s recovery plan until the country carries out judicial reform and guarantees that corruption cases are investigated, justice commissioner Didier Reynders has said.

There are systemic problems with the rule of law in Hungary, and the European Commission is ready to use all tools to protect democracy, including the suspension of EU funds, Reynders said on hvg.hu news site.

In a report published today, the European Commission listed serious concerns about the rule of law in Poland and Hungary, Reuters reports. The commission said Poland and Hungary were undermining media pluralism and court independence. They are the only two countries in the 27-member bloc under formal EU investigation for jeopardising the rule of law.

Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga said on Facebook the commission was “blackmailing” Hungary because of a child protection law which won’t allow “LGBTQ-activists and any sexual propaganda into Hungarian kindergartens and schools”.

 

Shaadi

Member
Feb 16, 2019
2,299
2,548
The European Commission will not approve Hungary’s recovery plan until the country carries out judicial reform and guarantees that corruption cases are investigated, justice commissioner Didier Reynders has said.

There are systemic problems with the rule of law in Hungary, and the European Commission is ready to use all tools to protect democracy, including the suspension of EU funds, Reynders said on hvg.hu news site.

In a report published today, the European Commission listed serious concerns about the rule of law in Poland and Hungary, Reuters reports. The commission said Poland and Hungary were undermining media pluralism and court independence. They are the only two countries in the 27-member bloc under formal EU investigation for jeopardising the rule of law.

Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga said on Facebook the commission was “blackmailing” Hungary because of a child protection law which won’t allow “LGBTQ-activists and any sexual propaganda into Hungarian kindergartens and schools”.


Squeeze them and then they can decide whether they want to be in or out.
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190
I saw an article where Donald Tusk is going to lead a coalition against the current gov. Do you think this will make any difference?
That’s but post - sorry no time today, but will get to it.

In the meantime, it looks like the EU are going to take simultaneous action against Poland and Hungary, so that PiS and Orban can’t tag-team.

The expectation was that nothing would happen before September, before the end of the EU summer recess, so this August deadline is a sign the gloves are finally coming off:

https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/07/20/eu-gives-poland-deadline-to-implement-ecj-rulings-or-face-fines/?fbclid=IwAR1ehDjihXF5woKTTFjB-Bi1v2lM9ai1Q1tMu_KGYuOIA9pqdqeKi2dPnoY

The European Commission has given Poland until 16 August to suspend its disciplinary chamber for judges – as ordered by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) – or face financial penalties.

The Polish government, which has previously said that it is “not planning” to implement the rulings, responded to today’s ultimatum by saying it will “analyse” the commission’s demands. However, a deputy justice minister accused Brussels of “acting in bad faith and violating the [EU] treaties”.

The commission today also published its annual report on the rule of law in individual member states. Its chapter on Poland expressed “serious concerns” over the independence of the judiciary, corruption, media freedom, measures taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and women’s and LGBT rights.
 

CarlDoyle

Member
Feb 10, 2021
201
129
In the meantime, it looks like the EU are going to take simultaneous action against Poland and Hungary, so that PiS and Orban can’t tag-team.
Is the rule that since it is one investigation that happens to target both countries, neither both lose their veto (since a country can't veto an investigation if they are the target)?
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190
Is the rule that since it is one investigation that happens to target both countries, neither both lose their veto (since a country can't veto an investigation if they are the target)?
It’s not one investigation,, but it’s two separate, but oddly similar, actions in exactly the same time frame.

Unanimity is not no longer a prerequisite for actions since the most recent EU budget was ratified earlier thus year, it’s been replaced by ”a qualified majority” and “sufficient evidence“. So, in relation to anything connected to “rule of laws abuses”, now a single veto is no longer a stumbling block.
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
And rejoin the latter day CCCP.

I suspect the 'rejoining ' wouldn't be voluntary and any significant political opposition might find themselves mysteriously getting sick from some sort of radioactive poison.........

I linked an article a while back that the Hungarian opposition to Orban is gaining ground ......it seems some posters who would like Poland and Hungary to just fook off didn't bother to read it......
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
To match the end of this fine Umbrella i bought when i was last in the UK ........come closer and take a look.........
 

soccop

Pavlov rings my bell.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
8,961
8,641
Temporally dislocated.
I suspect the 'rejoining ' wouldn't be voluntary and any significant political opposition might find themselves mysteriously getting sick from some sort of radioactive poison.........

I linked an article a while back that the Hungarian opposition to Orban is gaining ground ......it seems some posters who would like Poland and Hungary to just fook off didn't bother to read it......
You can't read them all, but the NYT would appear to concur.


I'd like to have these countries in.
 

Bonkers

Member
Feb 15, 2019
4,250
4,038
I suspect the 'rejoining ' wouldn't be voluntary and any significant political opposition might find themselves mysteriously getting sick from some sort of radioactive poison.........

I linked an article a while back that the Hungarian opposition to Orban is gaining ground ......it seems some posters who would like Poland and Hungary to just fook off didn't bother to read it......
They’d need to hurry up and do something Fran.
 
Top Bottom