There may be trouble ahead: Hungary set to reject budget and COVID recovery scheme

Statsman

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There may be trouble ahead as the Hungarian government look set to reject the new EU budget and the Covid recovery scheme because of the inclusion of a condition that Member states be bound by the rule of law to get funding.

Poland, it seems, are set to follow suit. The resulting impasse is, I think, more of an existential crisis for the Union than Brexit. If the UK breaks the law when outside, that's a pain, if member states refuse to recognise the basics of democracy then the foundations of the EU become very shaky indeed.

Let's face the music now.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-budget-hungary-veto-idUSKBN27W0X7
 

hollandia

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There may be trouble ahead as the Hungarian government look set to reject the new EU budget and the Covid recovery scheme because of the inclusion of a condition that Member states be bound by the rule of law to get funding.

Poland, it seems, are set to follow suit. The resulting impasse is, I think, more of an existential crisis for the Union than Brexit. If the UK breaks the law when outside, that's a pain, if member states refuse to recognise the basics of democracy then the foundations of the EU become very shaky indeed.

Let's face the music now.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-budget-hungary-veto-idUSKBN27W0X7
I think some sanction is required sooner rather than later. Let them reject it.
 
Apr 24, 2020
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I think some sanction is required sooner rather than later. Let them reject it.
Yep.

Someone described Poland as "The EU's Alabama". Crass, but they need to understand a bit of reality. Ditto Hungary.

Might also require a bit more cohesive funding of regions prone to a bit of fascism. Conditional on being less fascist.
 

curio

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In both instances it's domestic politicking that's compromising both nations EU membership. However in Hungary's case I think the greater threat is revanchism with Romania.
 

Vega1447

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In both instances it's domestic politicking that's compromising both nations EU membership. However in Hungary's case I think the greater threat is revanchism with Romania.
Remember that it was the Brits that demanded the extension of the EU to the East - "wider and shallower" being the strategy.

The EU is now in a bind as (I think) even one country can block the sanctioning of another for violation of the rule of law.
 

curio

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Remember that it was the Brits that demanded the extension of the EU to the East - "wider and shallower" being the strategy.

The EU is now in a bind as (I think) even one country can block the sanctioning of another for violation of the rule of law.
Didn't Austria have voting rights suspended before for compromising basic EU citizen commitments?

I think the problem for both Poland and Hungary is that their leaders have followed Trump up the populist tree but domestically they don't really have a way down without losing face so I reckon it's just going to be a lot of bawling until they tucker themselves out. My only real fear is an reigniting of Hungarian nationalism within Romanian which will actually be a far greater challenge to untangle.
 

Vega1447

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Didn't Austria have voting rights suspended before for compromising basic EU citizen commitments?

I think the problem for both Poland and Hungary is that their leaders have followed Trump up the populist tree but domestically they don't really have a way down without losing face so I reckon it's just going to be a lot of bawling until they tucker themselves out. My only real fear is an reigniting of Hungarian nationalism within Romanian which will actually be a far greater challenge to untangle.
Maybe no other State backed Austria up?

But Poland and Hungary back each other up it seems.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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The Polish government have, with their most recent cabinet reshuffle, gone "full retard" with QAnon paranoia and fascist intentions.

That Trump couldn't "fix" the election to stay in for another term has left them severely shaken. God knows why they believed that Trump was safe in the White House, but they did.

The government, yet alone parliament, is now so broken and divided that the bravado of saying they'll veto the EU budget and recovery fund is at least partially an attempt to cover up the fact that, like May's time as PM, at this point they can't get any vote passed though the Sejm (equivalent of the Dail).

For anyone that's interested, the four articles below give a decent bit of background and detail.





 
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Bonkers

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Maybe no other State backed Austria up?

But Poland and Hungary back each other up it seems.
I’d have no problem if some formula were found to throw the two of them out. Putin can look after them. I wonder how they’d feel if a few million Poles had no right to live in the EU.
 

Cookiemonster

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Remember that it was the Brits that demanded the extension of the EU to the East - "wider and shallower" being the strategy.

The EU is now in a bind as (I think) even one country can block the sanctioning of another for violation of the rule of law.
And yet the big bad EU have been making the UK do things they didn't want to do for years.
 

midlander12

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The Polish government have, with their most recent cabinet reshuffle, gone "full retard" with QAnon paranoia and fascist intentions.

That Trump couldn't "fix" the election to stay in for another term has left them severely shaken. God knows why they believed that Trump was safe in the White House, but they did.

The government, yet alone parliament, is now so broken and divided that the bravado of saying they'll veto the EU budget and recovery fund is at least partially an attempt to cover up the fact that, like May's time as PM, at this point they can't get any vote passed though the Sejm (equivalent of the Dail).

For anyone that's interested, the four articles below give a decent bit of background and detail.





Considering most intrepid betting types apparently thought Trump would win, I'm not surprised the Polish PiS heads did. And let's face it, he came close enough.
 

soccop

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Hungary and Poland are accusing “woke” western Europe of using EU funds to impose a liberal agenda on socially conservative governments as a new schism emerges within the bloc.

A video summit of EU leaders today will be dominated by a confrontation over the Brussels budget, underlining a deep cultural split between nationalist governments in central and eastern Europe and western member states.
FFS - honouring an official agreement you signed at an EC summit in July isn’t “woke“, it’s the basis of functioning international relationships.

Have PL and HU completely missed the last few years of The UK’s complete failure to railroad the EU in Brexit discussions?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hungary-and-poland-threaten-to-split-woke-eu-over-budget-t06nhh09d?fbclid=IwAR18O6aqY6qrsFBrGFuuSp2h_KhfTZ3EQ-V-0Z1Goe6MEBO-hLhVgwSEibs
 

Bonkers

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FFS - honouring an official agreement you signed at an EC summit in July isn’t “woke“, it’s the basis of functioning international relationships.

Have PL and HU completely missed the last few years of The UK’s complete failure to railroad the EU in Brexit discussions?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hungary-and-poland-threaten-to-split-woke-eu-over-budget-t06nhh09d?fbclid=IwAR18O6aqY6qrsFBrGFuuSp2h_KhfTZ3EQ-V-0Z1Goe6MEBO-hLhVgwSEibs
If they don’t like it they can always leave.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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If they don’t like it they can always leave.
But some of us live in Poland but consider ourselves part of the EU.

Selling my home, looking for other employment and moving my family to another country really wouldn’t be my first preference.
 

Bonkers

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But some of us live in Poland but consider ourselves part of the EU.

Selling my home, looking for other employment and moving my family to another country really wouldn’t be my first preference.
I can understand that but two far right countries can’t be allowed disrupt the others.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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I can understand that but two far right countries can’t be allowed disrupt the others.
Rephrase that: two far-right governments, nottwifar-right countries.
 

danger here

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But some of us live in Poland but consider ourselves part of the EU.

Selling my home, looking for other employment and moving my family to another country really wouldn’t be my first preference.
Don't worry bruises, you can stay right where you are, ze Germans will come to you instead ;)
 

Shaadi

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The EU is a wrestling machine. You make a move and it will counter that move, it's also way to heavy to get pushed off.

The main question is, can the EU function without getting that budget passed? I would assume that it can.

How can the EU work around the problem?

Can Poland and Hungary be sidetracked and squeezed as the rest of the EU goes about something like business as usual?

Can the squeezing of both countries be used as a tool to exert internal pressure on those countries so that the people of those countries get the chance to change their countries direction if they so wish?

If they left wouldn't it be a neat way to repair the hole left in the EU finances by the UKs departure?

As net beneficiaries there's not going to be a huge amount of support in both countries for threatening to leave.
 

hollandia

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Vega1447

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Look, hopefully Fidez won't be harmed by this Soros slander of a decent family man who went back for a quick drink with the lads.

A Euro liberal would have gone to a cocktail bar with a mixed group of loose women and gay men (Note to editor, maybe rewrite?) .
 

ted08

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Look, hopefully Fidez won't be harmed by this Soros slander of a decent family man who went back for a quick drink with the lads.

A Euro liberal would have gone to a cocktail bar with a mixed group of loose women and gay men (Note to editor, maybe rewrite?) .
 
Nov 27, 2018
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The quicker themselves and Poland leave the better.
Poland's a different situation - Poland leaving the EU would be problematic - 1) it's too large (36 million population) 2) it's industry and economy are too tightly integrated with its neighbours (i.e. a huge about of German, Scandi and French companies have outsourced or relocated services / manufacturing / packaging manufacturing to Poland, not to mention that Poland imports a huge amount of waste from other EU states for processing, rather than those states processing that waste themselves, 3) the military ascot (like it or not, Poland is vehemently pro-NATO and anti-Russian, and does act as a firewall between the rest of the EU and Russia as the other EU states bordering Russia are much smaller nations, 4) Poland exports a huge amount of skilled and semi-skilled labour throughout the EU and 5) while the current Polish government are bigots, authortirians and approaching being outright fascists, this is not representative of a significant chunk the Polish population. The government may be homophobic but attendance at Pride marches is growing and acceptance and support of LGBT+ issues is also growing. An honest referendum to leave the EU would fall on its face, and an attempt to remove the whole Polish population from the EU would only justify and propagate anti-EU opinions.

The nasty truth is that the above wouldn't apply to Hungary, as Hungary is a smaller state and far less important to the economic health of the EU overall. Forcing Hungray out would result in a blip. Forcing Poland out would cause far more than an economic blip.


The problem is that not enough people in Poland vote, as there's a general sense of disillusionment with current politics. So the current government was elected by a minority of the population, not the majority.
 

Bonkers

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Poland's a different situation - Poland leaving the EU would be problematic - 1) it's too large (36 million population) 2) it's industry and economy are too tightly integrated with its neighbours (i.e. a huge about of German, Scandi and French companies have outsourced or relocated services / manufacturing / packaging manufacturing to Poland, not to mention that Poland imports a huge amount of waste from other EU states for processing, rather than those states processing that waste themselves, 3) the military ascot (like it or not, Poland is vehemently pro-NATO and anti-Russian, and does act as a firewall between the rest of the EU and Russia as the other EU states bordering Russia are much smaller nations, 4) Poland exports a huge amount of skilled and semi-skilled labour throughout the EU and 5) while the current Polish government are bigots, authortirians and approaching being outright fascists, this is not representative of a significant chunk the Polish population. The government may be homophobic but attendance at Pride marches is growing and acceptance and support of LGBT+ issues is also growing. An honest referendum to leave the EU would fall on its face, and an attempt to remove the whole Polish population from the EU would only justify and propagate anti-EU opinions.

The nasty truth is that the above wouldn't apply to Hungary, as Hungary is a smaller state and far less important to the economic health of the EU overall. Forcing Hungray out would result in a blip. Forcing Poland out would cause far more than an economic blip.


The problem is that not enough people in Poland vote, as there's a general sense of disillusionment with current politics. So the current government was elected by a minority of the population, not the majority.
They need to wake up and vote then before it’s too late.
 

hollandia

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Poland's a different situation - Poland leaving the EU would be problematic - 1) it's too large (36 million population) 2) it's industry and economy are too tightly integrated with its neighbours (i.e. a huge about of German, Scandi and French companies have outsourced or relocated services / manufacturing / packaging manufacturing to Poland, not to mention that Poland imports a huge amount of waste from other EU states for processing, rather than those states processing that waste themselves, 3) the military ascot (like it or not, Poland is vehemently pro-NATO and anti-Russian, and does act as a firewall between the rest of the EU and Russia as the other EU states bordering Russia are much smaller nations, 4) Poland exports a huge amount of skilled and semi-skilled labour throughout the EU and 5) while the current Polish government are bigots, authortirians and approaching being outright fascists, this is not representative of a significant chunk the Polish population. The government may be homophobic but attendance at Pride marches is growing and acceptance and support of LGBT+ issues is also growing. An honest referendum to leave the EU would fall on its face, and an attempt to remove the whole Polish population from the EU would only justify and propagate anti-EU opinions.

The nasty truth is that the above wouldn't apply to Hungary, as Hungary is a smaller state and far less important to the economic health of the EU overall. Forcing Hungray out would result in a blip. Forcing Poland out would cause far more than an economic blip.


The problem is that not enough people in Poland vote, as there's a general sense of disillusionment with current politics. So the current government was elected by a minority of the population, not the majority.
Perhaps they also suffer a bit from what held Ireland back until the late eighties - emigration causing a skewed demographic, as all the younger progressive types have moved away.
 
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