The Brexit thread

Statsman

The nice one, or so it seemed.
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[MOD] Can I remind you of some site rules, ones that are been broken so often on this thread that I don't have time to address them all individually?

  • Tweets and videos should be accompanied by a brief description and if necessary a time line as outlined in the OP section.
  • If a video forms part of an OP (or ordinary post), the OP (or post) shall clearly set out the content which is relevant to the thread, and shall provide times of the relevant section of the video.
From here on in, I'm inclined to just delete offending posts.[/MOD]

[MOD2] Consider this a gentle reminder also of the proper use of names. We've noticed a lot of use of the term "the Brits" being used. Whilst this is generally not being used in a derogatory or pejorative way, it can be perceived to be both, so please avoid using it. Alternative, non-contentious terms can be used, eg The British, HMG, UKG, Westminster, etc., etc. We don't want to have to unnecessarily remove otherwise informative or incisive posts, but we will start doing so. [/MOD2]
 
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Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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We dont like the Brexit we created and signed so we want to scrap it and do a new brexit that suits us because thats the way it should be .. it is all about us OK



Small twitter thread on this ( 4 replies by author to post ):

 

Shaadi

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Feb 16, 2019
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So, now what?

Has a genuine impasse been reached or is this just more showboating from the UK.

The obvious thing for the EU to do would be for them to go through legal channels, it's what they do.

What happens when the UK does whatever it wants in regards to NI?

Does the EU/ROI put up a land border or ride it out while the legal road is explored?

Does Biden's USA slap Bojo and Co silly or make some noble sounds and leave the EU and UK to their own devices.

How low can Anglo-Irish relations go and what does that mean for the political situation on the Island?
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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So, now what?

Has a genuine impasse been reached or is just more showboating from the UK.

The obvious thing for the EU to do would be for them to go through legal channels, it's what they do.

What happens when the UK does whatever it wants in regards to NI?

Does the EU/ROI put up a land border or ride it out while the legal road is explored?

Does Biden's USA slap Bojo and Co silly or make some noble sounds and leave the EU and UK to their own devices.

How low can Anglo-Irish relations go and what does that mean for the political situation on the Island?
UK = triggers Article 16?
 

CarlDoyle

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Feb 10, 2021
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What would the EU response be, what would be the correct technical response for the EU in regards to the Agreement that was agreed?
The EU wants to ensure the protection of the EU market. This requires a border somewhere between Britain and the EU.

The danger to the single market depends on the regulations in the EU and the UK. If the regulations are, essentially, the same, then there is little danger to the single market, even if the UK implement the checks badly (or not at all).

This is a short term solution and it can only work while the UK stays in alignment with EU regulations. The EU offered to eliminate 80% of the checks in exchange for the UK saying that they will keep regulations aligned in those areas.

The EU didn't even require a minimum length for that agreement, the UK could leave it at any time. Though, they would have to implement checks if they did.

The big issue is that some of the UK's new treaties may require the UK to allow goods into the British market that violate EU regulations (the chlorinated chicken problem). Once they implement those rules, then the short term solution becomes non-viable. Apparently, the Australian deal may have similar issues. Goods that violate the EU rules could enter the UK, and pass through the NI border into the EU market.

How does triggering Article 16 end?
It is only for emergency use and supposed to be temporary.

The EU will probably respond proportionally. A full breach of the treaty would presumably mean serious trade restrictions on the English channel.

If the UK point-blank refuse any checks on Britain to NI, then the only way to protect the single market is a border between NI and Ireland or one between Ireland and the EU.

Though I guess technically, it could be between Ulster and the rest of Ireland, or any other easier to police border. That might be politically viable with lots of EU payments to the affected counties (south of the NI border) and draconian consequences to the UK (say, massive quotas on trade with the EU).

In practice, it is likely that the UK wouldn't do a full breech. It could be a limited number of goods that are a risk to the single market. They are banking on the EU being willing to make a cost/benefit tradeoff. They are trying to find that sweet-spot where the EU don't go for the nuclear option.
 
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mac tíre

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Nov 28, 2018
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Contae An Dúin
So, now what?

Has a genuine impasse been reached or is this just more showboating from the UK.
I don't think it is showboating. I'm not even sure this is about the Protocol anymore (or a ploy to get some sort of advantage when it comes to services). I think, at this stage, the British are trying to undermine the EU itself.

It doesn't make sense for Britain to "go it alone" and have a larger, more powerful bloc (one it has just left) on its doorstep, acting collectively and thus able to throw its weight around - particularly to smaller Britain.

That's not the way things work to the British mind. Instead they would rather it is undermined and made much weaker - or even destroyed. That way the British can operate how they prefer - bi-laterals, where they are more able to throw their weight around.

'Global Britain' makes little sense as it is. With a weaker or non-existent EU, well, Blighty would be able to take its chances.

They've the EU in their sights, not the Protocol or even Ireland. The latter two are a means to an end.
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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So Donaldson wants to remove the Irish Sea border as per him saying so in the commons this afternoon.

So really only 2 ways:
  1. Border tween NI and the Republic ( all sorts of issues with GFA? )
  2. Border tween Ireland and EU ( which did come up 2 years ago or so )
 

seanof

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Nov 27, 2018
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So Donaldson wants to remove the Irish Sea border as per him saying so in the commons this afternoon.

So really only 2 ways:
  1. Border tween NI and the Republic ( all sorts of issues with GFA? )
  2. Border tween Ireland and EU ( which did come up 2 years ago or so )
Yes, that's what he wants, preferably #1, and neither are going to happen.
 
Feb 19, 2019
542
638
So Donaldson wants to remove the Irish Sea border as per him saying so in the commons this afternoon.

So really only 2 ways:
  1. Border tween NI and the Republic ( all sorts of issues with GFA? )
  2. Border tween Ireland and EU ( which did come up 2 years ago or so )
Wouldn't 2 be the better option, no border in Ireland so they can say GFA protected and who gives a fuck about ROI and its single market membership, your problem EU, suck it up.
 

im axeled

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Feb 21, 2019
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all the hype about the UK government's proposals on the NI Protocol, they essentially amount to the Augustinian approach of "We may invoke Article 16, but not yet!" The actual text consists of more blank pages and preamble than any concrete propositions, and even these largely consist of GB companies self-declaring whether goods are destined for NI or the Republic:
https://t.co/rmY58OQzZk?amp=1
 

seanof

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Nov 27, 2018
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Wouldn't 2 be the better option, no border in Ireland so they can say GFA protected and who gives a fuck about ROI and its single market membership, your problem EU, suck it up.
Not for the DUP. They want a hard border on the island and the more impermeable, the better. That's why they were so staunchly in favour of Brexit, even though it was always going to contrary to the economic interests of NI.
 

im axeled

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Feb 21, 2019
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believe it or not from frost
via Telegraph live
"He told peers: "We urge the EU to look at it with fresh eyes and to work with us to seize this opportunity and to put our relationships onto a better footing. We stand ready to work with them to deliver the brighter future which is in reach.""
 

Derryman

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Feb 17, 2019
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Derry
It is very clear now, that the threat of loyalist violence has produced no result.
Whatever happens it is going showcBritain as being exposed for the rogue state it is.
They can no longer claim their actions are to maintain peace.
 
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seanof

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Nov 27, 2018
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It is very lclear now that the threat of loyalist violence has produced no result.
Whatever happens it is going to be Britain being exposed for the rogue state it is.
They can no longer claim their actions are to maintain peace.
Do you agree with the theory in post #49408 above that Britain's primary motive here is to destabilise the EU?
 

Bonkers

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Feb 15, 2019
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I don't think it is showboating. I'm not even sure this is about the Protocol anymore (or a ploy to get some sort of advantage when it comes to services). I think, at this stage, the British are trying to undermine the EU itself.

It doesn't make sense for Britain to "go it alone" and have a larger, more powerful bloc (one it has just left) on its doorstep, acting collectively and thus able to throw its weight around - particularly to smaller Britain.

That's not the way things work to the British mind. Instead they would rather it is undermined and made much weaker - or even destroyed. That way the British can operate how they prefer - bi-laterals, where they are more able to throw their weight around.

'Global Britain' makes little sense as it is. With a weaker or non-existent EU, well, Blighty would be able to take its chances.

They've the EU in their sights, not the Protocol or even Ireland. The latter two are a means to an end.
Great post. You’ve hit the nail on the head imo.
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,639
6,190
I don't think it is showboating. I'm not even sure this is about the Protocol anymore (or a ploy to get some sort of advantage when it comes to services). I think, at this stage, the British are trying to undermine the EU itself.

It doesn't make sense for Britain to "go it alone" and have a larger, more powerful bloc (one it has just left) on its doorstep, acting collectively and thus able to throw its weight around - particularly to smaller Britain.

That's not the way things work to the British mind. Instead they would rather it is undermined and made much weaker - or even destroyed. That way the British can operate how they prefer - bi-laterals, where they are more able to throw their weight around.

'Global Britain' makes little sense as it is. With a weaker or non-existent EU, well, Blighty would be able to take its chances.

They've the EU in their sights, not the Protocol or even Ireland. The latter two are a means to an end.
Hence Johnson is courting Orban:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57272249
 

publicrealm

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Nov 27, 2018
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Former Chief Negotiator, now Brexit Minister, David Frost has expressed his deep concern at the absolute state of the Brexit deal relating to Northern Ireland that was struck by Brexit Minister and former Chief negotiator David Frost.

Lord Frost told reporters, “What an absolute melt this Frost bloke must be...........

 

Franzoni

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Nov 28, 2018
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That’s another reason why Orban needs to be sorted out.

Which is exactly what Johnson wants so he can claim in his best Winston Churchill voice that the heavy hand of EUSSR oppression led by the Franco-German Axis is one again being wielding against small nations in Eastern Europe......
 

Bonkers

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Feb 15, 2019
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Which is exactly what Johnson wants so he can claim in his best Winston Churchill voice that the heavy hand of EUSSR oppression led by the Franco-German Axis is one again being wielding against small nations in Eastern Europe......
That gobshite can claim whatever he wants. Who cares?
 
Apr 24, 2020
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Wouldn't 2 be the better option, no border in Ireland so they can say GFA protected and who gives a fuck about ROI and its single market membership, your problem EU, suck it up.
If they did that, there would be massive repercussions across the EU.

Basically, Ireland would be thrown under a bus and effectively made dependent on UK regulations. And whim.

That would be horrific for the EU to do to one of the most pro-european member states. So all moral authority would be lost at an EU level. It would genuinely be an existential threat to the EU.

The only non protocol or "protocol #2" solution is a UI. And for those of you who think the GFA is the only political route to same, I can sell you shares in Boris's Bridge to Blighty.

Unless they reverse brexit into a Customs Union / brexit lite.

Which is far too sensible and mature.
 

Ó Gabhainn

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Mar 12, 2019
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If they did that, there would be massive repercussions across the EU.

Basically, Ireland would be thrown under a bus and effectively made dependent on UK regulations. And whim.

That would be horrific for the EU to do to one of the most pro-european member states. So all moral authority would be lost at an EU level. It would genuinely be an existential threat to the EU.

The only non protocol or "protocol #2" solution is a UI. And for those of you who think the GFA is the only political route to same, I can sell you shares in Boris's Bridge to Blighty.

Unless they reverse brexit into a Customs Union / brexit lite.

Which is far too sensible and mature.
The more this drags on, the closer the GFA comes to being in play anyway. And the DUP know that.
 
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