Scottish Indie Referendum 2: The Sturgeon Strikes Back

Statsman

The nice one, or so it seemed.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
9,618
10,380
A quiet retirement home
[MOD]This thread is for discussing a potential referendum. If you want to discuss other aspects of Scottish politics, please start threads on them.[/MOD]
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
My hand is shaking as I type this:
Could we eventually see something like the Scottish Republican Army?
No. There was an SNLA many years ago that never did anything other than steal the stone of scone. That model of attempted revolution is long gone in western society.
 

ruserious

Member
Dec 4, 2018
5,138
4,881
No. There was an SNLA many years ago that never did anything other than steal the stone of scone. That model of attempted revolution is long gone in western society.
Because the model of state that precipitates the need for such a group no longer exists in the West. A sectarian state like the North pre troubles couldn’t survive now with sanctions etc.
 

Leinsterview

Member
Mar 11, 2019
598
699
Mind you it raises an interesting question:
What if we have a scenario like the American colonies in 1776 and Ireland in 1918 where the a demand for independence is not respected?
 

ruserious

Member
Dec 4, 2018
5,138
4,881
Mind you it raises an interesting question:
What if we have a scenario like the American colonies in 1776 and Ireland in 1918 where the a demand for independence is not respected?
The best thing the SNP can do now is go on a charm offensive around Europe and building contacts and support for Scotland joining the EU being a seamless process.
 

ruserious

Member
Dec 4, 2018
5,138
4,881
Let’s hope we don’t see some Tories calling for a partition of Scotland’s southern counties.

 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
Gove desperately trying to fudge a question about another Scottish indy ref on the Marr show ....

Someone should tell him trying to sell the successor to ' £350 million for the NHS ' isn't going to fly ....
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
Gove is happy enough with Tory gains in England but not only ignores the mandate given to the SNP/Greens but seems to think that people voting for other parties in Scotland outside of Pro independence parties have more legitimacy in opposing independence ..🙄

This is the fella who wrote a white paper back in the day opposing the GFA and looking for a military solution instead.....
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
Sturgeon on now .....Marr trying to push her on any potential court case over another referendum...

Sturgeon replying she thinks it will never come to that but the optics of a London government arguing against the results of the election is refusing to accept Scottish democracy would be very bad ...
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
Makes a great point as regards financial subsidy from London which plays in the argument we have here about NI ...basically it's a failure of the British government policy over the years in how the manage the relationship with the other parts outside of England and why Scotland with all its resources could do better on it's own....

I'd imagine that there are people in England who would continue on that theme and argue that even there previous governments have concentrated the wealth in certain areas mainly in the South ....
 

Zen

Member
Dec 5, 2020
484
684
Sturgeon on now .....Marr trying to push her on any potential court case over another referendum...

Sturgeon replying she thinks it will never come to that but the optics of a London government arguing against the results of the election is refusing to accept Scottish democracy would be very bad ...
Her preference is that it would be legislated for in Westminster, a in or out referendum like was done by Cameron. Johnson is never going to agree to that. And there is no sign of the Tories losing their grip on power. So stalemate. It's going to go to court, no doubt in my mind. If the court decides, that a referendum called in Holyrod would not be legally binding, then the SNP are snookered, no way out. If a court decides the other way, then I could see the Tories taking a hatchet to the judiciary and refusing to recognise legitimacy of a referendum if unionists lost.

I think that numbers in Westminster would have to dictate a Labour SNP government. But again, Tories have a stranglehold that shows no sign of abating.
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,040
5,248
Her preference is that it would be legislated for in Westminster, a in or out referendum like was done by Cameron. Johnson is never going to agree to that. And there is no sign of the Tories losing their grip on power. So stalemate. It's going to go to court, no doubt in my mind. If the court decides, that a referendum called in Holyrod would not be legally binding, then the SNP are snookered, no way out. If a court decides the other way, then I could see the Tories taking a hatchet to the judiciary and refusing to recognise legitimacy of a referendum if unionists lost.

I think that numbers in Westminster would have to dictate a Labour SNP government. But again, Tories have a stranglehold that shows no sign of abating.
That was basically Marrs argument .....I would say that historically it hasn't gone well for Britain when it had to deal with countries who wanted independence and when they refused the wishes of the people in them and Johnson would do well to remember and accept that .....
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Her preference is that it would be legislated for in Westminster, a in or out referendum like was done by Cameron. Johnson is never going to agree to that. And there is no sign of the Tories losing their grip on power. So stalemate. It's going to go to court, no doubt in my mind. If the court decides, that a referendum called in Holyrod would not be legally binding, then the SNP are snookered, no way out. If a court decides the other way, then I could see the Tories taking a hatchet to the judiciary and refusing to recognise legitimacy of a referendum if unionists lost.

I think that numbers in Westminster would have to dictate a Labour SNP government. But again, Tories have a stranglehold that shows no sign of abating.
There's more than one way to skin a cat. Scotland, like Ireland has a fair bit of soft power clout. The SNP, and Sturgeon herself, are "well got" in Europe. America should be their next focus, in the way many Irish parties have "pull" in the states, and they should leverage that. Indeed, many of those who claim Irish ancestry in the states will in fact be descendents of the Scots-Irish - poor Presbyterians who were planted in Ireland but also suffered under the penal laws. So there is a huge overlap to be worked.

The SNP maintains good relationships with both SF and the SDLP in the north, and with the Irish Government in the south. They need to spread their wings a bit further and start leveraging their cousins in the states, and Canada, Australia and New Zealand in particular. External pressure can be brought to bear on Westminster, if the argument is framed correctly.

Priorities should be:
Europe,
The US,
Canada, Australia and new Zealand
in that order

Being seen to be reneging on your trade deals is one thing, but if the SNP can frame Westminster as being fundamentally undemocratic, that can have very far reaching consequences for the UK.
 

Mercurial

Member
Dec 4, 2018
648
364
I was going to suggest that it would be idiotic for the Tories to allow another referendum unless they were certain of winning it, but then again that's pretty much exactly how Brexit happened and if there's one thing we know about the British government it's that it's chronically incapable of learning from its mistakes.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611


Can surely only benefit indie vote further?

Who did the Scottish crofters / farmers vote for though?
 

Cookiemonster

Staff member
Moderator
Member
Feb 15, 2019
6,593
6,474


Can surely only benefit indie vote further?

Who did the Scottish crofters / farmers vote for though?
unsurprisingly:
A recent poll undertaken by Farmers Weekly asked 577 farmers how they were going to vote on 23 June. This was self-selected to represent the profile of farming in the UK. 58% said they would vote to leave, 31% would vote to remain and 11% were undecided.

Within this poll, farmers in Scotland, the North West and Wales were less likely to want to leave and nowhere in these areas did those wanting to leave exceed 50%. These are the locations with more marginal farms where subsidies are so important to their business. This is evidenced by just 12% of English land qualifying for EU's less favoured area subsidies compared to 78% in Wales and 84% in Scotland. No wonder those areas want to remain.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,089
2,108

Even more so now with this crazy road ENGLAND going down re opening up
Doesn't Scotland have at least some autonomy in terms of Covid restrictions? Incidentally, their ICU and hospitalisation rates are rather worse than the rest of the UK.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Doesn't Scotland have at least some autonomy in terms of Covid restrictions? Incidentally, their ICU and hospitalisation rates are rather worse than the rest of the UK.
Their curve is flattening. Presumably because they went out of the Euros much earlier than England. (Not joking)
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,089
2,108
Their curve is flattening. Presumably because they went out of the Euros much earlier than England. (Not joking)
Yes, quite possibly. Their case numbers soared earlier than England or the North's too, in fact they were having 4000 cases a day a few weeks ago.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611
A nod in our direction


Tbh I never gave this much thought - anti Irish sentiment in Scotland. Yes I was aware of this in Football, but not as much outside football.

I suppose it sort of makes sense because the northern unionists would have been born from Scottish Presbyterians being planted in NI? Am I right? Do the marches we see in NI occur in Scotland also round 12th July?

So is anti Irish in Scotland quiet widespread outside of rangers v Celtic?
 

seanof

Member
Nov 27, 2018
2,473
2,405
A nod in our direction


Tbh I never gave this much thought - anti Irish sentiment in Scotland. Yes I was aware of this in Football, but not as much outside football.

I suppose it sort of makes sense because the northern unionists would have been born from Scottish Presbyterians being planted in NI? Am I right? Do the marches we see in NI occur in Scotland also round 12th July?

So is anti Irish in Scotland quiet widespread outside of rangers v Celtic?
Indeed it is, maybe not quite so much as once, but still very much alive. Like him or not, George Galloway is a supporter of a reunited Ireland, yet he is entirely opposed to an independent Scotland. Much of hIs reasoning on Scotland is based on his experience of anti-Catholic hatred there. He feels that Catholic / Irish Scots are safer with government from London.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,089
2,108
A nod in our direction


Tbh I never gave this much thought - anti Irish sentiment in Scotland. Yes I was aware of this in Football, but not as much outside football.

I suppose it sort of makes sense because the northern unionists would have been born from Scottish Presbyterians being planted in NI? Am I right? Do the marches we see in NI occur in Scotland also round 12th July?

So is anti Irish in Scotland quiet widespread outside of rangers v Celtic?
Well of course the whole Rangers v Celtic thing is essentially anti-Irishness and the response to it, but I presume you know that.

I have relations in Glasgow and when I last visited them (admittedly 30 years ago) there was a definite sectarian undercurrent (they lived near Ibrox). One of my cousins said he used to be called a 'Mick' at work and there was a definite air of concern about the pub across the road which was emblazoned with Rangers regalia. On the other hand, we did later go into that pub and in fact one night went into the late drinking den at Ibrox itself and I didn't detect much hostility to my accent (maybe I was too drunk to notice). Quite a few of my cousins had married Protestants too and I think they had gone to the same schools.

I was told at the time that the SNP would never get Catholic support as they were seen as the 'Protestant' (if not quite 'Orange') party. That clearly has changed.

I have not been back since so I can't really comment on the current situation but I presume an element of it still exists (aside from the obvious 'Orange' stuff).
 

soccop

Pavlov rings my bell.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
8,961
8,641
Temporally dislocated.
No one on the dole in England?
 
Last edited:

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Does this attitude seem at all familiar?

The account, with the bio “A British woman against a separated Scotland” and a Union flag banner reading “proud to be British, proud to support our United Kingdom”, makes their position clear from the outset.

“Son on bus on Lewis,” she announced to her 4000 followers. “The locals spoke Gaelic and made him feel unwelcome. Locals negative attitude towards tourism.”

NI 1998:


20210728_080851.md.jpg
 
Top Bottom