Scottish Indie Referendum 2: The Sturgeon Strikes Back

Statsman

The nice one, or so it seemed.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
9,617
10,380
A quiet retirement home
[MOD]This thread is for discussing a potential referendum. If you want to discuss other aspects of Scottish politics, please start threads on them.[/MOD]
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611
My scottish parliament knowledge is a bit below par. Currently does snp/sturgeon have a majority in gov? If not did they ever achieve that?

From what I am hearing its a very very narrow path for snp to achieve majority this time?
 

Cookiemonster

Staff member
Moderator
Member
Feb 15, 2019
6,593
6,474
My scottish parliament knowledge is a bit below par. Currently does snp/sturgeon have a majority in gov? If not did they ever achieve that?

From what I am hearing its a very very narrow path for snp to achieve majority this time?
In the last government, no. In the one prior to that they did.

It’s also with remembering that the electoral system here is very different to Ireland’s, and achieving a majority or even close to one is extremely difficult. That the SNP have done so well again, after 14 years in government, is absolutely spectacular in that context.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
In the last government, no. In the one prior to that they did.

It’s also with remembering that the electoral system here is very different to Ireland’s, and achieving a majority or even close to one is extremely difficult. That the SNP have done so well again, after 14 years in government, is absolutely spectacular in that context.
To clarify, pretty much the only way to get a majority is to win 65 constituency seats out of 73. To put that in context - that equates to a Westminster seat haul of 579 out of 650.
If they win big in the constituencies the list route is closed unless the opposition is fractured enough to put several parties below 5%.

Cookie might correct me if I'm wrong, but I also think there's a 3% minimum bar for representation on the list too?
 

Leinsterview

Member
Mar 11, 2019
598
699
You keep saying things like this, ignoring the fact that it doesn’t have an impact on what Johnson says - he is always going to deny Scotland an independence referendum. If the SNP got a majority, if there was a majority coalition, if they got every seat in Parliament, he’d still deny it.

It’s not about him, it’s about making his position more difficult when he does it and an SNP majority or a coalition majority does that
Memo to Boris:
Read up on your world history: the American colonies 1776, and Ireland 1918. Denying independence to an area that wants it is not a particularly good idea.
 

Cookiemonster

Staff member
Moderator
Member
Feb 15, 2019
6,593
6,474
Memo to Boris:
Read up on your world history: the American colonies 1776, and Ireland 1918. Denying independence to an area that wants it is not a particularly good idea.
He knows this, he just doesn’t care because he and his acolytes can almost literally do anything and it doesn’t impact their support in England - where it matters. Just look at the council elections!
Scotland and, to a lesser extent, Wales are captive to Westminster and Westminster serves England only.
It might not end in 5 years, but it will end and it will end badly - but as long as Johnson is it the PM who oversaw the end of the Union he doesn’t care about anything else.
 

Ó Gabhainn

Member
Mar 12, 2019
404
302
He knows this, he just doesn’t care because he and his acolytes can almost literally do anything and it doesn’t impact their support in England - where it matters. Just look at the council elections!
Scotland and, to a lesser extent, Wales are captive to Westminster and Westminster serves England only.
It might not end in 5 years, but it will end and it will end badly - but as long as Johnson is it the PM who oversaw the end of the Union he doesn’t care about anything else.
He'll have had his fun and that's all that matters.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611
Gallaway & West Dumfries declare CONSERVATIVE. Pretty much all the south electoral areas on England border declaring for conservatives. Seems getting there too by vote swings from labour to tory. Very much pro union in the south of scotland.

I wonder is that where most of the english living in scotland are :D
 
Last edited:

soccop

Pavlov rings my bell.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
8,961
8,641
Temporally dislocated.
It seems there never was a realistic opportunity for SNP to get to OM. Even if they had won one or two more marginals. Ah well, another tenner gone west.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
It seems there never was a realistic opportunity for SNP to get to OM. Even if they had won one or two more marginals. Ah well, another tenner gone west.
It can be done, but the swings between Tory and labour against the SNP indicates that Scotland indeed becoming balkanised.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611
It can be done, but the swings between Tory and labour against the SNP indicates that Scotland indeed becoming balkanised.
TBH and its only a gut thing .. I still cant see Scotland voting for independence even if a second ref happens. It might be close but no cigar?
 

soccop

Pavlov rings my bell.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
8,961
8,641
Temporally dislocated.
It can be done, but the swings between Tory and labour against the SNP indicates that Scotland indeed becoming balkanised.
But not realistically, that PR list system is stilted steeply against the winners.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
I get the impression that SNP go on too much about it, so much so that they turn people off the idea?
It's the core tenet of their party. Not "going on about it" would be like SF not going on about a United Ireland, or the Green Party not going on about climate change.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611
Why a Scottish person wouldn’t vote for independence is beyond me.
I suppose you have to some how get into the mindset of THE UNION and although it might sound like a great idea over a few pints to be independent of it, the reality is, with all that might be wrong, the comfort being in it and the fear of being out of it shifts your pencil in the privacy of the ballot box toward staying with the devil you know?

PLUS its not like Ireland where the fight for independence was way more recent than Scotland?
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611
It's the core tenet of their party. Not "going on about it" would be like SF not going on about a United Ireland, or the Green Party not going on about climate change.
I understand that ... I am all for an indie republic of scotland but I still cannot shake that feeling it is a nice thing to think about but when at the cold face of deciding they back down. More in love with the idea of it rather than the reality of making that decision?
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
I understand that ... I am all for an indie republic of scotland but I still cannot shake that feeling it is a nice thing to think about but when at the cold face of deciding they back down. More in love with the idea of it rather than the reality of making that decision?
It'll happen within a decade. The UK is finished.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
12,353
5,611
SNP now 62 so 3 more to Majority ( 65 )

BBC Projection:


snp 63
con 31
lab 22
gr 9
ld 4

So pretty much as was it seems ..

SNP + Greens will both be in favour of indie ref 2 during this new parliament, which is a majority? But only after COVID is sorted and finished
 

Cookiemonster

Staff member
Moderator
Member
Feb 15, 2019
6,593
6,474
She’s not wrong. The transphobic, homophobic and racist parties were kicked to the kerb.
 

Bonkers

Member
Feb 15, 2019
4,250
4,038
I suppose you have to some how get into the mindset of THE UNION and although it might sound like a great idea over a few pints to be independent of it, the reality is, with all that might be wrong, the comfort being in it and the fear of being out of it shifts your pencil in the privacy of the ballot box toward staying with the devil you know?

PLUS its not like Ireland where the fight for independence was way more recent than Scotland?
The comfort of being in the same country as Tory England?
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,089
2,108
SNP now 62 so 3 more to Majority ( 65 )

BBC Projection:


snp 63
con 31
lab 22
gr 9
ld 4

So pretty much as was it seems ..

SNP + Greens will both be in favour of indie ref 2 during this new parliament, which is a majority? But only after COVID is sorted and finished
It seems the SNP now have 64 because they unexpectedly gained a list seat in the South. However as you say it is pretty much as it was - an SNP/Green majority. The whole overall majority thing was a total red herring - there was always going to be a pro-independence majority, and of course that has been the case for the last 10 years. If you're looking at party shares, the SNP got c.48% (rounded up) and the 3 pro-union parties c.50% in the constituencies, but the Greens and Alba will only appear in the list party shares.

There is no more and no less a mandate for a referendum than there was last week or last year. One wonders how prepared the SNP would be if Johnson turned around next week and said 'OK, let's see what mandate you have' and called an immediate referendum. At the moment, I would not be confident of a YES vote in Scotland or indeed in the North if he were to try the same tactic there. I don't expect this to happen, but the man is a chancer and a gambler and so far his horses have all come in. He might figure a NO vote in 2021 would postpone the issue at least for his premiership.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,089
2,108
I suppose you have to some how get into the mindset of THE UNION and although it might sound like a great idea over a few pints to be independent of it, the reality is, with all that might be wrong, the comfort being in it and the fear of being out of it shifts your pencil in the privacy of the ballot box toward staying with the devil you know?

PLUS its not like Ireland where the fight for independence was way more recent than Scotland?
I've posted on this before but in reality the UK has already ceased to exist, except in the strict legal sense. With the possible exception of Belgium I cannot think of a state with less sense of shared identity. England and Wales are one-party states, albeit with different parties in control, though Wales shows little sign as yet of wanting to break away for now. Neither has a credible opposition capable of forming a govt.

Scotland and N Ireland are both utterly disconnected from England but also both split literally down the middle on what to do about it. Both are quite geographically split as well e.g. the southern border strip of Scotland and the north-eastern corner of NI (outside parts of Belfast) are unionist enclaves while the rest of both areas are now largely nationalist.

We are in a sense discussing something that has already happened in terms of facts on the ground - the politics just has to catch up.
 

CarlDoyle

Member
Feb 10, 2021
201
129
You keep saying things like this, ignoring the fact that it doesn’t have an impact on what Johnson says - he is always going to deny Scotland an independence referendum. If the SNP got a majority, if there was a majority coalition, if they got every seat in Parliament, he’d still deny it.
An SNP outright majority would be much harder to deny as legitimate. It may not make any difference in the end, but it is a much easier soundbite to say "well the SNP didn't get a majority".
 

Leinsterview

Member
Mar 11, 2019
598
699
An SNP outright majority would be much harder to deny as legitimate. It may not make any difference in the end, but it is a much easier soundbite to say "well the SNP didn't get a majority".
The snag is that you could be hoisted on that petard next time around.
 

Cookiemonster

Staff member
Moderator
Member
Feb 15, 2019
6,593
6,474
An SNP outright majority would be much harder to deny as legitimate. It may not make any difference in the end, but it is a much easier soundbite to say "well the SNP didn't get a majority".
But it doesn’t matter to Johnson either way. A majority for independence supporting parties is what it is whether it’s one of several. He’ll deny it regardless and momentum against that stance will happen.
 
Top Bottom