Scottish Indie Referendum 2: The Sturgeon Strikes Back

Statsman

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[MOD]This thread is for discussing a potential referendum. If you want to discuss other aspects of Scottish politics, please start threads on them.[/MOD]
 

hollandia

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Robutnua

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Most likely Scottish Labour will go same way as in England, Tories will gain there big time and SNP get less than they thought.

I still believe there is quiet alot of English living in Scotland that come out and vote, this was a thing in last indie ref in 2014, a large enough influence on the result.
 

hollandia

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Cookiemonster

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Turnout is up anyway.
I voted at lunchtime yesterday and they said that that it had been very busy. The official at my polling place is a co-workers father, he was saying it seemed as busy as it was for the Independence referendum.
When I was returning home about 9:30 past the same polling place there was a huge queue down the road, assume that it was owing to COVID measures causing delays, but it was also reported that huge numbers had registered to vote by post two.
 

Cookiemonster

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Most likely Scottish Labour will go same way as in England, Tories will gain there big time and SNP get less than they thought.

I still believe there is quiet alot of English living in Scotland that come out and vote, this was a thing in last indie ref in 2014, a large enough influence on the result.
I suspect this is highly unlikely.
 

Cookiemonster

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Hopefully ... as in SNP do very very well.

As i have you @Cookiemonster , i have said that a thing I heard plays into Scottish vote is lots of English living there and this impacted the last indie ref? Is that a factor?
Most of the English people I know here both despise the Tories and Support independence. But then I do live in a bit of a bubble. I’m sure there are many English people who don’t... but I don’t know of any.
 

ruserious

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SNP with three gains so far.
Think they need three more gains to get a majority and are rapidly running out of chances fo secure that.
 

ruserious

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Hard to know. The more they get constituency wise, the more they get screwed on the list.
How is that? No idea the mechanics behind it.
 

midlander12

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Think they need three more gains to get a majority and are rapidly running out of chances fo secure that.
Dunbarton is gone (held by Lab) so they've gained 3 of the top 6 and missed 2 (Edinburgh Southern also held by Lab) and they've also missed Eastwood at No 8. Aberdeenshire West is not counting until tomorrow. After that it looks rather less hopeful for them. My understanding is they can lose seats on the list as a result of gaining constituencies - some sort of balancing system which I don't even pretend to understand. I think their previous overall majority in 2011 was something of a fluke which the system was designed to prevent.
 

hollandia

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Dunbarton is gone (held by Lab) so they've gained 3 of the top 6 and missed 2 (Edinburgh Southern also held by Lab) and they've also missed Eastwood at No 8. Aberdeenshire West is not counting until tomorrow. After that it looks rather less hopeful for them. My understanding is they can lose seats on the list as a result of gaining constituencies - some sort of balancing system which I don't even pretend to understand. I think their previous overall majority in 2011 was something of a fluke which the system was designed to prevent.
However, Indy voters have got wise and the greens should double their seats.
 

CarlDoyle

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However, Indy voters have got wise and the greens should double their seats.
I think it is likely that the UK government will start pushing that the SNP seat count, and only the SNP count is what matters. If the SNP doesn't get a majority then it means that the Scottish people don't want a referendum.

They have implemented a PR system but will likely simultaneously refuse to accept the legitimacy of PR.
 

hollandia

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How is that? No idea the mechanics behind it.
The system is designed to actually prevent a majority government. The 73 constituency MSPs are elected by FPTP.
Straightforward so far.

Then there are eight regions comprising 9 or 10 constituencies, which elect seven MSPs each based on the D'Hondt list system. However, seats already won in the constituencies are taken into account.

Consider a ten constituency region that breaks down as follows:

SNP 7 seats
Lab 2 seats
Con 1 seat

In the regional vote, the votes might break down as follows:

SNP 35%
Lab 25%
Con 25%
Green 15%

In each round of voting, seats already won are factored in.

so, we get

SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Con 25/(1+1) = 12.5
Green 15/(0+1) = 15

So the greens get the first list seat.

Round 2:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Con 25/(1+1) = 12.5
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

Tories take the second list seat.

Round 3:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Con 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

labour get the third seat

Round 4:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

Tories get the 4th seat

Round 5:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

greens get the 5th seat

Round 6:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Green 15/(2+1) = 3.75

SNP get the sixth seat

Round 7:

SNP 35/(8+1) = 3.89
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(2+1) = 4.25
Green 15/(2+1) = 3.75

Con get the last seat.
 

ruserious

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The system is designed to actually prevent a majority government. The 73 constituency MSPs are elected by FPTP.
Straightforward so far.

Then there are eight regions comprising 9 or 10 constituencies, which elect seven MSPs each based on the D'Hondt list system. However, seats already won in the constituencies are taken into account.

Consider a ten constituency region that breaks down as follows:

SNP 7 seats
Lab 2 seats
Con 1 seat

In the regional vote, the votes might break down as follows:

SNP 35%
Lab 25%
Con 25%
Green 15%

In each round of voting, seats already won are factored in.

so, we get

SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Con 25/(1+1) = 12.5
Green 15/(0+1) = 15

So the greens get the first list seat.

Round 2:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Con 25/(1+1) = 12.5
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

Tories take the second list seat.

Round 3:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Con 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

labour get the third seat

Round 4:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(2+1) = 8.333
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

Tories get the 4th seat

Round 5:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Green 15/(1+1) = 7.5

greens get the 5th seat

Round 6:
SNP 35/(7+1) = 4.375
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Green 15/(2+1) = 3.75

SNP get the sixth seat

Round 7:

SNP 35/(8+1) = 3.89
Lab 25/(3+1) = 4.25
Con 25/(2+1) = 4.25
Green 15/(2+1) = 3.75

Con get the last seat.
Jaysis. That’s complicated but I think I get it now. What a horrible and unfair system!
 

CarlDoyle

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Jaysis. That’s complicated but I think I get it now. What a horrible and unfair system!
It is fairer than pure FPTP, as it moves to PR.

It would be better if there were no regions and the seats were allocated nationally. That would give a very high level of proportionality.

The design was to harm the largest party (SNP), so the seat boost for the largest party from FPTP had to be mitigated.

OTOH, the regions means that tiny parties get a penalty with d'Hondt. This means that medium sized parties (like Conservatives and Labour) get a benefit relative to tiny parties.

It is a FPTP first round and then a second "top-up" round to restore proportionality.

In the example given, there are 10 FPTP seats and 7 top-up seats. That gives 17 seats total.

FPTP (local)

SNP 7 seats
Lab 2 seats
Con 1 seat

Regional

SNP 35%
Lab 25%
Con 25%
Green 15%

Before the top-up, the totals are

SNP 7 seats = 70%
Lab 2 seats = 20%
Con 1 seats = 10%
Grn 0 seats = 0%

Afterwards, the totals are as follows.

SNP 7 seats + 1 = 8 = 47%
Lab 2 seats + 1 = 3 = 17.6%
Con 1 seat + 3 = 4 = 23.5%
Grn 0 seats + 2 = 2 = 11.8%

This updated totals are closer to proportionality. If there were no regions and the top-up was national, then it would be even better PR.
 

Cookiemonster

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I think it is likely that the UK government will start pushing that the SNP seat count, and only the SNP count is what matters. If the SNP doesn't get a majority then it means that the Scottish people don't want a referendum.

They have implemented a PR system but will likely simultaneously refuse to accept the legitimacy of PR.
You keep saying things like this, ignoring the fact that it doesn’t have an impact on what Johnson says - he is always going to deny Scotland an independence referendum. If the SNP got a majority, if there was a majority coalition, if they got every seat in Parliament, he’d still deny it.

It’s not about him, it’s about making his position more difficult when he does it and an SNP majority or a coalition majority does that
 
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