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hollandia

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The dust has settled somewhat after the election in February, and perhaps now is a good time to reflect on the current trends.


The polling since the Election is as per the table below:

Polling OrganisationSample SizeSFFFFGGPLabSDS–PBPAonO/I
08-Feb-20​
De People of Ireland
24.5​
22.2​
20.9​
7.1​
4.4​
2.9​
2.6​
1.9​
13.5​
16-Feb-20​
Amárach
1,040​
35​
17​
18​
9​
3​
5​
3​
10​
25-Feb-20​
B&A
917​
35​
20​
18​
6​
3​
2​
3​
1​
12​
10-Mar-20​
B&A
912​
35​
19​
21​
6​
3​
1​
3​
0​
11​
25-Mar-20​
RedC
1,062​
28​
18​
34​
5​
3​
3​
2​
2​
5​
29-Apr-20​
RedC
1,019​
27​
14​
35​
7​
3​
3​
2​
1​
8​
23-May-20​
Ireland Thinks
1,012​
27​
16​
36​
6​
4​
3​
2​
6​
27-May-20​
RedC
1,000​
27​
15​
35​
5​
3​
4​
2​
1​
8​
14-Jun-20​
Ipsos MRBI
1,200​
25​
13​
37​
12​
2​
10​
20-Jun-20​
Ireland thinks
1,000​
27​
13​
34​
8​
4​
3​
2​
10​
18-Jul-20​
Ireland thinks
1,000​
26​
12​
38​
5​
4​
3​
2​
10​
28-Jul-20​
B&A
921​
30​
20​
29​
6​
3​
1​
1​
0​
10​
22-Aug-20​
Ireland thinks
1000​
30​
11​
35​
3​
5​
5​
2​
2​
7​
09-Sep-20​
RedC
1,000​
27​
10​
35​
6​
3​
4​
2​
2​
10​

1700

As can be seen from the Graph - both SF and FG have improved on their GE polling (if the pollsters are to be believed).

FF have leaked vote share to both SF and FG, with the later travails of FF matched by a similar growth in that of FG - indicating that Fg and FF are fishing in the same pond, but Fg have the better bait.

SF have held steady after losing some initial gains during the early days of Covid - largely due to FG's perceived good handling of the situation. In fact, the brief reversal where SF overtook FG in one poll didn't coincide with Golfgate indicating that once more FF took most of the brunt of that.

for Lab, Soc Dems, Greens and Sol-PBP-RISE - it's a case of very much as you were - with the greens losing some early gains in govt formation due to implementing policies that went agains ttheir manifesto. (Essentially doing a Labour 2011-2016).
 

Outlander

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It's a bit wild that SF/FG seem to be swapping popularity. Not sure who would vote SF one week, then FG the next...
 

Statsman

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Lest we forget.

 

hollandia

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Lest we forget.

Exactly - it's the trends that are important.
 

hollandia

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Election in the morning.Fg55. Sf50,Ff25, Lab4, Sd6, Aontu1, Greens6, Indos, .Alpabets the remaining seats.
I haven't run the numbers, but there's no way FF will get 25 off 10%. They'll run far too many candidates due to internal fighting.
 

Shaadi

Member
Feb 16, 2019
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Exactly - it's the trends that are important.
Some trends are not quite as they appear.

Using all your fingers and toes you still couldn't count the amount of times that FG were well over 30% in 2019 and then they polled just over 20% in this year's GE. There's a historic pattern there that makes it necessary to not take FG opinion poll numbers ( particularly with Red C) seriously until there's an election campaign being fought.

If FG were on similar numbers to these many times in the past when FF were also on 20%+ then there's little evidence to support the proposition that FG is swallowing the FF vote. That leaves it looking like the lion's share of FFs disappearing opinion poll numbers are showing up in SFs record high opinion polling figures.

Normally it would be wise to mistrust low opinion poll figures for FF as they have proven that they can beat their opinion poll numbers in an actual GE. However we are talking about record low GE opinion polling figures for FF and numbers of this order gave them 17.4% in GE 2011.

So what's going to happen at the next GE? The 3 parties would be expected to converge a little more, on the other hand a rubicon has been crossed. FF went into Govt with FG and many FF voters took that badly, in their minds it was a betrayal that has left them willing to abandon a FF party that has abandoned FFs raison d'etre which was to provide an alternative to the Tory Boys in FG. Many who were prepared to stomach going in with FG were then giving another huge reason to abandon FF. The selfish behaviour of individual FF TD's jockeying for ministerial position made a mockery of the term party. The FF party is in trouble but never underestimate their ability to survive.
 

hollandia

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Some trends are not quite as they appear.

Using all your fingers and toes you still couldn't count the amount of times that FG were well over 30% in 2019 and then they polled just over 20% in this year's GE. There's a historic pattern there that makes it necessary to not take FG opinion poll numbers ( particularly with Red C) seriously until there's an election campaign being fought.

If FG were on similar numbers to these many times in the past when FF were also on 20%+ then there's little evidence to support the proposition that FG is swallowing the FF vote. That leaves it looking like the lion's share of FFs disappearing opinion poll numbers are showing up in SFs record high opinion polling figures.

Normally it would be wise to mistrust low opinion poll figures for FF as they have proven that they can beat their opinion poll numbers in an actual GE. However we are talking about record low GE opinion polling figures for FF and numbers of this order gave them 17.4% in GE 2011.

So what's going to happen at the next GE? The 3 parties would be expected to converge a little more, on the other hand a rubicon has been crossed. FF went into Govt with FG and many FF voters took that badly, in their minds it was a betrayal that has left them willing to abandon a FF party that has abandoned FFs raison d'etre which was to provide an alternative to the Tory Boys in FG. Many who were prepared to stomach going in with FG were then giving another huge reason to abandon FF. The selfish behaviour of individual FF TD's jockeying for ministerial position made a mockery of the term party. The FF party is in trouble but never underestimate their ability to survive.
Normally the numbers change in a GE campaign as it becomes extremely difficult to avoid scrutiny of your record. Also, although they have little immediate impact, the debates can actually highlight flaws - for example Leo struggled I thought in the debates because while he's great being scripted, he is not great at thinking on his feet, particularly when a curve ball is thrown.

When numbers are finite - these things actually do amount to vote swapping.
 

Statsman

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The dust has settled somewhat after the election in February, and perhaps now is a good time to reflect on the current trends.


The polling since the Election is as per the table below:

Polling OrganisationSample SizeSFFFFGGPLabSDS–PBPAonO/I
08-Feb-20​
De People of Ireland
24.5​
22.2​
20.9​
7.1​
4.4​
2.9​
2.6​
1.9​
13.5​
16-Feb-20​
Amárach
1,040​
35​
17​
18​
9​
3​
5​
3​
10​
25-Feb-20​
B&A
917​
35​
20​
18​
6​
3​
2​
3​
1​
12​
10-Mar-20​
B&A
912​
35​
19​
21​
6​
3​
1​
3​
0​
11​
25-Mar-20​
RedC
1,062​
28​
18​
34​
5​
3​
3​
2​
2​
5​
29-Apr-20​
RedC
1,019​
27​
14​
35​
7​
3​
3​
2​
1​
8​
23-May-20​
Ireland Thinks
1,012​
27​
16​
36​
6​
4​
3​
2​
6​
27-May-20​
RedC
1,000​
27​
15​
35​
5​
3​
4​
2​
1​
8​
14-Jun-20​
Ipsos MRBI
1,200​
25​
13​
37​
12​
2​
10​
20-Jun-20​
Ireland thinks
1,000​
27​
13​
34​
8​
4​
3​
2​
10​
18-Jul-20​
Ireland thinks
1,000​
26​
12​
38​
5​
4​
3​
2​
10​
28-Jul-20​
B&A
921​
30​
20​
29​
6​
3​
1​
1​
0​
10​
22-Aug-20​
Ireland thinks
1000​
30​
11​
35​
3​
5​
5​
2​
2​
7​
09-Sep-20​
RedC
1,000​
27​
10​
35​
6​
3​
4​
2​
2​
10​

View attachment 1700

As can be seen from the Graph - both SF and FG have improved on their GE polling (if the pollsters are to be believed).

FF have leaked vote share to both SF and FG, with the later travails of FF matched by a similar growth in that of FG - indicating that Fg and FF are fishing in the same pond, but Fg have the better bait.

SF have held steady after losing some initial gains during the early days of Covid - largely due to FG's perceived good handling of the situation. In fact, the brief reversal where SF overtook FG in one poll didn't coincide with Golfgate indicating that once more FF took most of the brunt of that.

for Lab, Soc Dems, Greens and Sol-PBP-RISE - it's a case of very much as you were - with the greens losing some early gains in govt formation due to implementing policies that went agains ttheir manifesto. (Essentially doing a Labour 2011-2016).
The Ireland Thinks polls are remarkably consistent.
 

hollandia

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Wow

The international FFG trolls will be on overtime for the foreseeable. The next milkshake thrower will be wearing a "SF/IRA" branded mask and t-shirt.

RT will be working double.shifts and they are medicating HBAP for the longhaul on p.ie.
1719
 

hollandia

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So this poll shows 54 per cent support for the goverment, hard luck Shinners, you will be excluded next time also from Goverment.
It doesn't. It shows a combined 54% for the parties in government, which is an entirely different thing altogether. Especially when considering the known difficulties in two of those parties surrounding the current arrangement.
 

Cathal

Member
May 27, 2020
1,746
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It doesn't. It shows a combined 54% for the parties in government, which is an entirely different thing altogether. Especially when considering the known difficulties in two of those parties surrounding the current arrangement.
Ah here...the Greens have principles, goddamit! They’re just very, very, very flexible on them
 

mac tíre

Member
Nov 28, 2018
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Contae An Dúin
So this poll shows 54 per cent support for the goverment, hard luck Shinners, you will be excluded next time also from Goverment.
Well if FG and FF want to be connected for three governments in succession, they might as well merge. They're arguably well on that road anyway. Which would be great for SF.

And do you honestly think if SF showed a bit of leg to FF after the next election, FF wouldn't be over on bended knee promising undying, eternal love?

We'll just not talk about Labour.
 

Shaadi

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Feb 16, 2019
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It is a bit mad that FF could be at 19% in this opinion poll vs 10% in the last Red C, but then you look at the previous history of both polling companies and it's par for the course with them.

FFs 19% with B&A is out of sync with the other polling companies but completely in line with B&A's polling since the GE where they show FF at 19-20% without fail. Given the shenanigans that FF have been going through since the GE the consistency of the B&A figure for them looks wrong. B&A should not be taken too seriously and Red C are no better.

I'd say though that for the big three parties the gist of the B&A poll isn't too far off the mark. FG are never anywhere near as far ahead in elections as they often are in opinion polls. FF are never as low in GEs as their worst polling would imply.

SFs polling position is consistently high post GE 2020, this creates a bit of a headache, before GE 2020 you could safely dismiss high polling figures for SF as being undeliverable in a GE.

In this particular poll 32% for SF is probably way too high for them as are FGs 30% and FFs current 19%. It's not credible that the likes of the SD's are only on 1%. The last polls from the other polling companies had them at 4 and 5% while B&A have had them at 1% in their last 3 polls and they only had them at 1% previous to the 2020 GE. The SDs poll approximately 3% in a GE and they are popular in areas where they have no candidates so their opinion polling should normally be exceeding that 3%. You can carry that slipshod polling attitude to the share of all the smaller parties and Inds, those political entities are going to be almost universally higher than their opinion polling figures.

The big 3s combined opinion polling figures are very significantly exaggerated. Their 82% here is almost 15% ahead of their combined vote just 7 months ago. It's a nonsense.
 

hollandia

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It is a bit mad that FF could be at 19% in this opinion poll vs 10% in the last Red C, but then you look at the previous history of both polling companies and it's par for the course with them.

FFs 19% with B&A is out of sync with the other polling companies but completely in line with B&A's polling since the GE where they show FF at 19-20% without fail. Given the shenanigans that FF have been going through since the GE the consistency of the B&A figure for them looks wrong. B&A should not be taken too seriously and Red C are no better.

I'd say though that for the big three parties the gist of the B&A poll isn't too far off the mark. FG are never anywhere near as far ahead in elections as they often are in opinion polls. FF are never as low in GEs as their worst polling would imply.

SFs polling position is consistently high post GE 2020, this creates a bit of a headache, before GE 2020 you could safely dismiss high polling figures for SF as being undeliverable in a GE.

In this particular poll 32% for SF is probably way too high for them as are FGs 30% and FFs current 19%. It's not credible that the likes of the SD's are only on 1%. The last polls from the other polling companies had them at 4 and 5% while B&A have had them at 1% in their last 3 polls and they only had them at 1% previous to the 2020 GE. The SDs poll approximately 3% in a GE and they are popular in areas where they have no candidates so their opinion polling should normally be exceeding that 3%. You can carry that slipshod polling attitude to the share of all the smaller parties and Inds, those political entities are going to be almost universally higher than their opinion polling figures.

The big 3s combined opinion polling figures are very significantly exaggerated. Their 82% here is almost 15% ahead of their combined vote just 7 months ago. It's a nonsense.
I think how a pollster treats the smaller parties has the effect of bigging up the top 3 at times - if for example they lump Aontu, SDs, GP, SPBP in with the indos. Conversely, people may also express a wish to vote for parties which have no presence in their constituency - the green party and the Sd's are prime examples of this - and this can have the effect of deflating a bigger party score.

It's not an exact science.
 

hollandia

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Anyways, for shits and giggles, I've attached my bigfuckoffspreadsheetfor seat predictions. just a bit of fun.

Either choose a previous poll, or enter your own percentages and choose that to see what way the seats fall.

Caveats:
  1. Based on same parties running in the same nr of constituencies (but getting their candidate numbers right).
  2. Doesn't account for wildcard candidates entering the fray
  3. Assumes all things being equal since the General Election.

Enjoy.
 

hollandia

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Had a flick through the various polls, and there's little chance of a left only government. The only way that's happening is with FF as a junior partner, as although the nominal left does breach 50% of the vote at times, the vote is fractured, and the SDs aren't large enough yet to run right across the country. Although I suspect a lot of the left green vote will go red(dish) next time.
 

ruserious

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Dec 4, 2018
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Had a flick through the various polls, and there's little chance of a left only government. The only way that's happening is with FF as a junior partner, as although the nominal left does breach 50% of the vote at times, the vote is fractured, and the SDs aren't large enough yet to run right across the country. Although I suspect a lot of the left green vote will go red(dish) next time.
A FF under Jim O‘Callaghan, who has said he wants FF to be a centre left Republican Party, could be a junior partner for a SF led government.
 

Shaadi

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Feb 16, 2019
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">🚨Poll🚨 <br>Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday<br><br>FG: 32% (-3)<br>SF: 28% (-2)<br>FF: 14% (+3)<br>SD: 5% (nc)<br>LAB: 4% (-1)<br>GP: 4% (+1)<br>S-PBP: 3% (+1)<br>AON: 3% (+1)<br>I/O: 7% (nc)<br><br>Sample Size: 1,250<br>September 26th, 2020<br><br>+/- August 23, 2020<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/poll?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#poll</a></p>&mdash; Next Irish General Election (@NextIrishGE) <a href="">September 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Cathal

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">🚨Poll🚨 <br>Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday<br><br>FG: 32% (-3)<br>SF: 28% (-2)<br>FF: 14% (+3)<br>SD: 5% (nc)<br>LAB: 4% (-1)<br>GP: 4% (+1)<br>S-PBP: 3% (+1)<br>AON: 3% (+1)<br>I/O: 7% (nc)<br><br>Sample Size: 1,250<br>September 26th, 2020<br><br>+/- August 23, 2020<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/poll?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#poll</a></p>&mdash; Next Irish General Election (@NextIrishGE) <a href="">September 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
That’s an interesting one.

FF and the Greens gaining from FG and Labour.
Aontú and PBP gaining from SF.
 

jmcc

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Nov 27, 2018
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It is a bit mad that FF could be at 19% in this opinion poll vs 10% in the last Red C, but then you look at the previous history of both polling companies and it's par for the course with them.
Different methodologies/sampling. RedC/etc used telephone/online polling. B&A used Face to Face for the first time since the Covid restrictions kicked in and showed FF being higher than the others. FF is stronger in the demographics that don't use the Internet as much as younger demographics. SF is stronger in younger demographics. Ipsos/MBRI has been using telephone polling since the Covid restrictions and this meant that it was largely in synch with the RedC/IrelandThinks/etc polls. Ipsos/MRBI is generally regarded as more accurate than others so the thing to watch will be the poll where it reverts to F2F polling. Got a lot of flack on P.ie from the FG shills for pointing out the limitations of methodologies. They are not clueful when it comes to polling and methodologies and are simply regurgitating propaganda.
 

hollandia

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That’s an interesting one.

FF and the Greens gaining from FG and Labour.
Aontú and PBP gaining from SF.
I think it's about right. One of the limitations of some pollsters is their treatment of the smaller groupings such as Aontú and PBP and whether they're lumped in under "others". The other big difficulty is that you might express a preference for these parties only to find they don't stand where you live.
 

hollandia

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">🚨Poll🚨 <br>Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday<br><br>FG: 32% (-3)<br>SF: 28% (-2)<br>FF: 14% (+3)<br>SD: 5% (nc)<br>LAB: 4% (-1)<br>GP: 4% (+1)<br>S-PBP: 3% (+1)<br>AON: 3% (+1)<br>I/O: 7% (nc)<br><br>Sample Size: 1,250<br>September 26th, 2020<br><br>+/- August 23, 2020<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/poll?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#poll</a></p>&mdash; Next Irish General Election (@NextIrishGE) <a href="">September 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Using the bigfuckoffspreadsheet we get the following seat prediction:

1731
 

hollandia

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Another hung Dail.
There's no majority for any party for the foreseeable unless there's a ma-hoosive shift in opinion toward either FG or SF.

FF are kingpins if they can halt their current downward spiral. They're becoming the new Labour.
 

Statsman

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There's no majority for any party for the foreseeable unless there's a ma-hoosive shift in opinion toward either FG or SF.

FF are kingpins if they can halt their current downward spiral. They're becoming the new Labour.
Which adds extra spice to the 'internal struggle' mentioned elsewhere; half the party would be happier with FG, half with SF.
 

hollandia

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Which adds extra spice to the 'internal struggle' mentioned elsewhere; half the party would be happier with FG, half with SF.
I think i mentioned before - they need to get a grip on what it is they actually stand for, as opposed to merely being against everything other than FF being in power.
 

Statsman

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I think i mentioned before - they need to get a grip on what it is they actually stand for, as opposed to merely being against everything other than FF being in power.
They've never knowingly stood for anything else; a bit late in the day to start now.
 
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